Tuesday, October 27, 2009

New Poll Shows Approve Referendum 71 Pulling Ahead

UPDATE 6:00pm PST: An even newer poll just released by SurveyUSA of 561 likely and actual voters showed indicate that 50% would approve Referendum 71 and 43% would reject with 7% still undecided.

A new poll of 500 likely voters from Approve Referendum 71, the campaign that is asking Washington state residents to approve the new "everything but marriage" domestic partnership law, shows they hold a slight lead with 53% and opponents losing support at 36%.

The Approve 71 campaign celebrated the news but cautioned against complacency. Anne Levinson, chairwoman of the campaign, said in a press release, "This is both good--and cautionary--news. These results show that when voters understand what the domestic partnership law is--and the many families who will be harmed if it is repealed--they will vote to approve it.

"Yet, we also know that in an off-year election, older, more conservative voters turn out in greater numbers. While there is broad statewide support for treating all families equally, those who vote will determine the outcome of this election," Levinson continued. "This poll makes a very clear point: those who want to ensure that legal protections aren't taken away from gay and lesbian families absolutely have to vote."

Approve 71 campaign manager Josh Friedes noted that only a small percentage of voters have turned in their ballots so far.

"What our poll shows us is that if supportive voters cast their ballots, we will win. That's why getting fair-minded voters to cast their ballots on time is so important—we're seeing ballots from less urban parts of the state being sent in, while voters in King, Pierce and Snohomish counties are not yet mailing their ballots in large numbers,” said Friedes.

”We are also reaching out to younger voters—who often don’t vote in offyear elections—to mail in their ballots," added Friedes. "Younger voters could make a big difference since they tend to be more supportive, and many are not included in the poll because they are not considered likely voters.

"We need people to spend the five minutes to fill-out the ballot. And then we need them to actually put a stamp on the envelope—or two stamps if they live in Pierce County—and mail it.

"Basic legal protections for thousands of committed couples hinge on this simple act," concluded Friedes. "Our message is 'Vote now!'"

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1 comment:

  1. I call potential BS on this poll. First, it is an internal poll from WAFST's polling outfit. Second, it is a tracking poll, and the pollster doesn't say whether he grabbed a single day's results or averaged several days results. In a tracking poll, only the latter is valid. Third, as far as I can see, the campaign has not released the questions or data about the respondents.

    Finally, the only polls to show R71 over 50% have come from this same pollster. All other polls have shown it ahead, but under 50%. That is effectively a loss, since all undecideds go to the reject side.

    I have read that, in spite of a huge organizational advantage by the pro R71 side, the rate of return on absentee ballots is lower in pro-gay Kings County than in the conservative western part of the state.

    Things are not as good as this poll would have you believe.