POLL: Majority of Catholics in New Jersey Support Marriage Equality

Despite the ongoing efforts of the Catholic Church's leadership in New Jersey, a new poll released today finds that a majority of the Garden State's Catholics support marriage equality. 48% support, while 40% oppose and 12% are undecided. This is big news given that 37% of New Jersey is Catholic.

The breakdown of the poll is rather interesting but not surprising. Those who indicated they were Catholic and attended mass at least once a week, 54% opposed while 37% favored; if they attended once a month, 35% opposed while 46% favored.

"As with several social issues, many Catholics support a more liberal public policy than does the Church itself," said David Redlawsk, director of the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll and professor of political science at Rutgers University. "Given that Catholics comprise the largest religious group in the state, this makes a difference in overall support for gay marriage in New Jersey, especially since a majority of Protestants — many of whom are Evangelicals — oppose the bill."

Evangelical or "born-again" Protestants opposed marriage equality by a margin of 55% to 35%, with 11% undecided.

Another religious group with an encouraging majority. Jewish respondents supported 56% to 40% with 4% undecided.

Least shocking, those not affiliated with any religion support marriage equality 85% to 10% with 5% undecided.

The poll of 903 New Jersey adults was fielded November 6-10 and has a margin of error of 3.3 percent.

Recently, the sponsors of the state's marriage equality bill requested that the Senate delay its vote so that the Assembly could hold its own public hearing and vote in its Judiciary Committee.

I would like to bet that this poll will grab the legislature's attention. Despite what the bill's sponsors may say, it's rather obvious the votes are not solidified in either chamber of the state's legislature. Now with the vote delayed, hopefully they'll have time to review the poll that indicates that some of the bill's biggest objectors, who belong to people of faith groups and in particular the influential Catholics, are a minority within their own demographic.

ACTION: Go to Garden State Equality to find out how you can get involved!

New Poll Shows Support for Marriage Equality in New Jersey Dropping, Tug-O-War Continues

Just last week, a Rutgers-Eagleton poll showed New Jersey residents supporting the marriage equality bill by a 46 - 42% margin but with a slice of 12% still unsure.

A new poll released today from Quinnipiac University, conducted Nov. 17 and Nov. 22, reverses these results and one from earlier this year in April, now indicating that by a slim 49 - 46% margin, New Jersey voters oppose a law that would allow same-sex couples to marry. The Quinnipiac poll in April showed support with a 49 - 43% margin.

Voters were asked, "Would you support or oppose a law that would allow same-sex couples to get married?" (Click on images to enlarge)

Women support same-sex marriage 53 - 41 percent, while men oppose it 57 - 38 percent. White voters split 49 - 47 percent, while black voters oppose the measure 61 - 28 percent.

Among voters who do support same-sex marriage, 74 percent say the State Legislature should pass the measure now, so Gov. Jon Corzine can sign it.

"When we asked about gay marriage in April, it won narrow approval. Now that it seems closer to a legislative vote, it loses narrowly with the public," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"The biggest drop is among independent voters, who backed the measure 50 - 41 percent in April. And opposition among men spiked from 48 - 44 percent opposed to 57 - 38 percent."

"If the State Legislature is going to pass it, voters say, do it while Gov. Jon Corzine - a supporter - is still in office. Governor-elect Christopher Christie has said he'd veto it."

The poll goes on to ask an interesting question regarding uber-conservative governor-elect Chris Christie and how he should select state Supreme Court justices, particularly when it comes to controversial issues.

It's a shame that it is, but it appears marriage equality is controversial. Go figure.

One of the more disheartening aspects of this poll is the big drop in support from independent voters. It's hard to determine if this shift is the result of Maine and the message that came from Question 1 passing, or if it's because now that marriage equality can become an actuality in New Jersey, voters balk at the idea. Or maybe it's both?

The AP thinks it's Maine, declaring, "The state-to-state march to legalize gay marriage across the left-leaning Northeast has lost more momentum since a major setback three weeks ago at the ballot box in Maine."

Of course Maggie Gallagher of the National Organization for Marriage (NOM), whose organization launched a major campaign against the marriage bill Monday, told the AP, "If they are unable to pass gay marriage in New York and New Jersey, combined with the loss in Maine, it will confirm that gay marriage is not the inevitable wave of the future."

But Evan Wolfson of Freedom to Marry disagrees. "In any civil rights struggle there are going to be periods of creeping and periods of leaping."

"If this goes down in both states, it will be seen by both sides as building on the momentum that opponents sort of got coming out of Maine," said David Masci, a senior researcher at the Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life.

Steven Goldenstein of Garden State Equality, the state's largest LGBT advocacy group, acknowledges they may have lost support in the New Jersey's capital of Trenton, but asks, "Was marriage equality in the bag before the election? Nothing in politics is ever in the bag, but we were looking pretty damn excellent."

Whatever the cause of support dropping, there's a lot of work to be done in New Jersey and very little time to do it. Gov. Jon Corzine, who has promised to sign the marriage bill if it reaches his desk, will have to leave office in January and be replaced by Christie, who is not a fan of the LGBT population.

On Monday, legislators met for the first time during the lame duck session and Democratic leaders met to discuss the marriage bill but made no decisions. Meanwhile they faced a large crowd of marriage equality supporters rallying for its passage.

However, opponents say that despite the difficulty of getting an initiative on the ballot in New Jersey, they vow to accomplish just that if the bill is passed in order to give voters a chance to have a final say on the matter.

ACTION: Now more than ever, New Jersey needs your help. Go to Garden State Equality and find out how you can get involved.

Image: Mel Evans/The Associated Press, Trenton rally

Poll Shows More New Jersey Residents Support Marriage Equality Than Oppose

UPDATE: Advocate: NJ Senators Weigh Marriage Priority

A new poll released today shows that New Jersey residents support marriage equality more than they oppose it. By a 46% - 42 % margin, New Jerseyans favor legalizing same-sex marriage with 12% still unsure. The marriage question was asked after Election Day. The poll has a +/-3.3% margin of error.

This next quote is key! "The survey also shows that if the state Legislature passes a bill legalizing gay marriage, 52 percent would accept the decision, while 40 percent would support a constitutional amendment banning the practice."

On Monday I reported that state Sen. Paul Sarlo mentioned that the state's marriage bill may not get out of his committee so that the full senate could vote on it. Currently, there is a time crunch. Pro-marriage equality Gov. Jon Cozine was voted out of office earlier this month and will be replace by Chris Christie who adamantly opposes same-sex marriage.

Many fear that the defeat in Maine gave politicians cold feet, but this poll hopefully will thaw them out.

“New Jerseyans are more supportive of gay marriage than opposed to it, and more importantly, a majority would accept a legislative decision legalizing same-sex marriages,” said David Redlawsk, director of the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll and professor of political science at Rutgers University. “While this tests opinion outside the intensity of a campaign to ban gay marriage, as occurred in California, there is more of a ‘live and let live’ attitude in New Jersey than in many other states that have dealt with this issue.”

ACTION: Find out how you can help at Garden State Equality.

RELATED: VIDEO: Amazing New Marriage Equality Ads Launched in New Jersey

Californians Rebel Against 2010 Marriage Vote

Despite a slight 51% majority of Californians supporting marriage equality while 43% oppose, 60% of them do not want to revisit the issue in 2010 says the Los Angeles Times. Just last year 52% passed Prop 8 while 48% opposed it.

The findings come from a new Los Angeles Times/University of Southern California College of Letters, Arts & Sciences poll of 1,500 registered voters who were interviewed from Oct. 27 through Nov. 3. It was conducted by two nationally prominent polling firms, the Democratic firm Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, and the Republican firm Public Opinion Strategies.

Views on same-sex marriage were sharply polarized based on political party, with 66% of Democrats thinking it should be legal and 71% of Republicans in opposition. Nonpartisan voters were less enthusiastic than Democrats but still backed it, 59%-34%.

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The survey showed that same-sex marriage continues to reverberate differently along race and generational lines. Just over half of whites backed it, while just under half of African Americans and Latinos did.

All three groups, however, opposed having to vote on it in 2010. (Asians were questioned by the poll and included in the overall sample, but their numbers were statistically too small to isolate.) Young voters continued to be far more supportive of gay marriage rights than their elders.

Among those ages 18-29, 71% said they supported same-sex marriage; among those 65 and older, only 37% favored it. Younger voters were also one of the few groups who backed putting it on the 2010 ballot, which will be dominated by the races for governor and U.S. Senate.

This could raise some red flags for groups like Love Honor Cherish and Equality Network who among others are leading the charge to restore marriage equality to California in 2010 and are actively involved in the statewide organizing group Restore Equality 2010. (They were also the lead organizers behind Wednesday's march in remembrance of Prop 8's passage.)

This Sunday, November 8, they will be holding a town hall meeting to discuss the signature gathering campaign to get language on the 2010 ballot to undo Prop 8.

The Facebook Event Page states:

For activists in: Beverly Hills, Brentwood, Century City, Chinatown, Culver City, Fairfax, Hollywood, Koreatown, Marina del Rey, Malibu, Mid-Wilshire, Pacific Palisades, Playa Vista, Santa Monica, Silverlake, Venice Beach, Westwood, West Hollywood, and West L.A.

√ Learn about Restore Equality 2010 and the movement to repeal Proposition 8

√ Help qualify our marriage equality initiative for the ballot by signing up as a volunteer
or Hub Coordinator

√ Get training on how to properly collect signatures

√ Meet and strategize with fellow activists

RED ALERT: New Maine Poll Shows Marriage Equality in Peril as Opponents Gear Up for Big Smear Ad

RED ALERT!

Tomorrow Mainers go to the polls and decide whether or not to strip gays and lesbians of their newly found right to marry in the Pine Tree State.

Those of us in favor of marriage equality are facing an uphill battle.

A new poll released today shows those in favor overturning marriage equality, or those voting YES for Question 1, beating us 51% to 47%. (See full poll embedded at bottom of the post. Also see Nate Silver's analysis of all Maine Question polls.)

THIS IS CRUNCH TIME.

And to make matters a little worse, the Yes on 1 side has just done an unexpected, major push to raise $25,000 to air one last major attack ad.

Contrary to popular belief, the NO on 1 campaign does not have a lot of money. We raised it and they used it well. But the Yes on 1 has the Catholic Church and NOM on their side, and they intend to squash us.

We need your help.

From Jesse Connolly, NO on 1/Protect Maine Equality campaign manager.

I wasn't going to come to you to ask for money again. We've asked so much, and you've dug deep and really come through.

Honestly, I wouldn't take my time away from managing our Get Out The Vote operation to send this email if it wasn't really important.

But we just heard that Yes on 1 is increasing their TV ad buy by $25,000 today.

$25,000 buys a lot of TV ads in Maine.

With the money we have now, we simply can't counter their arguments on TV.

You and I have both invested a lot in this campaign. I won't-- I can't-- let them win this because we couldn't come up with the last $25,000 in the final 36 hours.

We can't let Yes on 1 win the airtime war with their misleading, and factually inaccurate ads.

We can't let Yes on 1 lie to Maine voters about schools and teachers and children and same-sex couples in Maine.

We need to stand up and match every one of their lies with an ad of our own, that explains that marriage equality won't do anything to families but protect all of them.

And I need you to help. Can you come through one last time and give $20 to help us finish this campaign with a win?

Seriously, this is it people. Help us avoid another Prop 8 from happening. DONATE!

ACTION: IF YOU CAN'T DONATE, YOU CAN STILL HELP!

1. If you live far from Maine but are eager to make a difference, you can phone bank from home. Sign up at Call for Equality.
2. If you do live near Maine, go to Drive for Equality, where you can look for carpools in your area headed up to the Pine Tree State so you can volunteer and help Get Out the Vote! They will call you within 15 minutes of signing up or call them at 415-935-4552
3. If you actually live in Maine, VOTE EARLY! Not only will the NO on 1 campaign see a record of your vote, it will free you up on election day to help get supporters to the polls.
4. DONATE! You can do this no matter where you live

Public Policy Poll Maine Question 1 November 09

MUST SEE VIDEO: Rachel Maddow Interviews Maine's Catholic Pro-Marriage Equality Governor

In her interview with the amazing Gov. Baldacci, Rachel referred to the Daily Kos poll. I have to admit, I'm trying to keep up with Maine. So much happening there and I hadn't had a chance to post it.

So here it is. (Click on the images below to enlarge)


This poll is consistent with other polls showing the two sides of Question 1 in a dead heat. At this point in the game, it's about GETTING OUT THE VOTE (GOTV!) It's calling our support base, who tends to not vote when it's not a presidential race, and getting them to the polls.

You can help by calling marriage equality supporters and reminding them to vote, vote, VOTE!

A little more on Catholic Gov. Baldacci. I wrote earlier that we can't judge people of faith with one fell swoop. I got some heat for sticking up for some Catholic church members who chose to stay in the church and still support us. But I think Gov. Baldacci is proof that we can't lump people together and judge them, just as we in the LGBT population don't like being broadly judged ourselves.

Here's the governor calling out the Yes on 1 campaign and their scare tactics:



Get. Involved. You can save marriage in your pajamas by simply taking a twenty minute training session from home and then calling Mainers and reminding them to vote. You could be instrumental in a historically monumental victory. Be a part of it.

ACTION: TAKE A STAND, FOLKS!

1. If you live far from Maine but are eager to make a difference, you can phone bank from home. Sign up at Call for Equality.
2. If you do live near Maine, go to Drive for Equality, where you can look for carpools in your area headed up to the Pine Tree State so you can volunteer and help Get Out the Vote!
3. If you actually live in Maine, VOTE EARLY! Not only will the NO on 1 campaign see a record of your vote, it will free you up on election day to help get supporters to the polls.
4. DONATE! You can do this no matter where you live.

New Poll Shows Approve Referendum 71 Pulling Ahead

UPDATE 6:00pm PST: An even newer poll just released by SurveyUSA of 561 likely and actual voters showed indicate that 50% would approve Referendum 71 and 43% would reject with 7% still undecided.

A new poll of 500 likely voters from Approve Referendum 71, the campaign that is asking Washington state residents to approve the new "everything but marriage" domestic partnership law, shows they hold a slight lead with 53% and opponents losing support at 36%.

The Approve 71 campaign celebrated the news but cautioned against complacency. Anne Levinson, chairwoman of the campaign, said in a press release, "This is both good--and cautionary--news. These results show that when voters understand what the domestic partnership law is--and the many families who will be harmed if it is repealed--they will vote to approve it.

"Yet, we also know that in an off-year election, older, more conservative voters turn out in greater numbers. While there is broad statewide support for treating all families equally, those who vote will determine the outcome of this election," Levinson continued. "This poll makes a very clear point: those who want to ensure that legal protections aren't taken away from gay and lesbian families absolutely have to vote."

Approve 71 campaign manager Josh Friedes noted that only a small percentage of voters have turned in their ballots so far.

"What our poll shows us is that if supportive voters cast their ballots, we will win. That's why getting fair-minded voters to cast their ballots on time is so important—we're seeing ballots from less urban parts of the state being sent in, while voters in King, Pierce and Snohomish counties are not yet mailing their ballots in large numbers,” said Friedes.

”We are also reaching out to younger voters—who often don’t vote in offyear elections—to mail in their ballots," added Friedes. "Younger voters could make a big difference since they tend to be more supportive, and many are not included in the poll because they are not considered likely voters.

"We need people to spend the five minutes to fill-out the ballot. And then we need them to actually put a stamp on the envelope—or two stamps if they live in Pierce County—and mail it.

"Basic legal protections for thousands of committed couples hinge on this simple act," concluded Friedes. "Our message is 'Vote now!'"

Help the Approve Referendum 71. Volunteer and help Get Out the Vote!

ACTION ALERT: New Maine Poll Shows a Literal Tie for Marriage Equality - They Need YOU to Pull Them Ahead!

A new poll released this morning shows Maine's marriage equality bill in a literal tie with its opponents at 48%/48% with only 4% undecided.

This poll was an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) survey. Pollsters note that many times voters temper their responses on sensitive social issues when actual interviewers are used. Voters fear that they may appear intolerant if they say they don't favor equality, so they tell the interviewer they will vote to support civil rights. When it's automated, they're much more willing to be honest.

Here's the poll:

Public Policy Polling on Maine LD 1020

I can evaluate this poll by saying it's a bit off (demographics, not a good selection of age groups, etc.), but the glaringly obvious piece of information this poll reveals, and it's nothing new, is that victory for marriage equality in Maine heavily relies on getting our support base out to the polls. We need a very strong Get Out the Vote field operation.

NO on 1/Protect Maine Equality is known for its amazing field work, so they're in a good position, but they need volunteers to pull it off! We're still two weeks away from election day, and in campaign time, anything can happen before then. They're going to need all the help they can get!

ACTION: Here are the different ways you can get involved.

1. If you live far from Maine but are eager to make a difference, you can phone bank from home. Sign up at Call for Equality.
2. If you do live near Maine, go to Drive for Equality, where you can look for carpools in your area headed up to the Pine Tree State so you can volunteer and help Get Out the Vote!
3. If you actually live in Maine, VOTE EARLY! Not only will the NO on 1 campaign see a record of your vote, it will free you up on election day to help get supporters to the polls.
4. DONATE! You can do this no matter where you live. And for those in Los Angeles, check out this fundraising Hollywood event happening tonight!
   

New Poll Shows Marriage Equality Inching Ahead in Maine But Facing Big Hurdles

A new poll of likely Maine voters out from Pan Atlantic SMS Group indicates 51.8% would vote no on Question 1 which is attempting to overturn the state's new marriage equality law. (PDF)

They were asked:

Question 1 - "Do you want to reject the new law that lets same-sex couples marry and allows individuals and religious groups to refuse to perform these marriages?" If today was Election Day, how would you vote on this issue?

• 40.9% would vote YES
• 2.0% lean YES
• 50.6% would vote NO
• 1.2% lean NO
• 5.2% are undecided
  

DirigoBlue reports:

More voters in the 2nd Congressional District would vote YES (51.8%), while fewer in the 1st Congressional District would vote YES (34.2%). While 64.3% of Republicans would vote YES, only 24.2% of Democrats would, with a surprising 42.6% of Independents saying they would vote YES.

And of Catholics surveyed, 50.0% responded that they would vote YES, while 42.7% would vote NO, with 7.3% undecided.

This is good news, but it could also have dire consequences for us.

Yesterday, the NO on 1/Protect Maine Equality announced how much it has raised thus far, and it turns out they have out raised the opposition by $1.1 million. The Yes on 1 responded by freaking out and blasting an email to supporters begging for more money. And now they can wail that they're behind in the polls, which will urge even more people to donate. So expect the LDS and Catholic church and the National Organization for Marriage to fork over more chunks of change.

Remember last year when the NO on 8 campaign announced we were running behind and needed funds, and floods of donations came in? Don't underestimate the opposition - they're about to get a lot of money by proclaiming the same thing.

With three weeks left before elections, anything can happen.

We need to keep donating money and time to the NO on 1 campaign. Donate to Maine's moneybomb! The goal is to raise as much money as possible by midnight October 15, the deadline for reporting numbers.




Can't donate? Don't worry. You can phone bank! Sign up for a two hour virtual phone bank shift. You will be trained.

Wednesday, October 14: 3-5 pm PT (6-8 pm ET)
Wednesday, October 14: 4-6 pm PT (7-9 pm ET)

Thursday, October 15: 3-5 pm PT (6-8 pm ET)
Thursday, October 15: 4-6 pm PT (7-9 pm ET)

Friday, October 16: 3-5 pm PT (6-8 pm ET)
Friday, October 16: 4-6 pm PT (7-9 pm ET)

Saturday, October 17: 7-9 am PT (10 am - 12 pm ET)
Saturday, October 17: 9-11 am PT (12-2 pm ET)
Saturday, October 17: 11 am - 1 pm PT (2-4 pm ET)
Saturday, October 17: 1-3 pm PT (4-6 pm ET)
Saturday, October 17: 3-5 pm (6-8 pm ET)

Sunday, October 18: 7-9 am PT (10 am - 12 pm ET)
Sunday, October 18: 9-11 am PT (12-2 pm ET)
Sunday, October 18: 11 am - 1 pm PT (2-4 pm ET)
Sunday, October 11: 1-3 pm PT (4-6 pm ET)
Sunday, October 18: 3-5 pm PT (6-8 pm ET)

Don't let the same people who passed Prop 8 do the same damage in Maine!

New Poll Shows Majority Support Civil Unions but No Increase in Support for Marriage Equality

From the Pew Forum:

A clear majority of Americans (57%) favors allowing gay and lesbian couples to enter into legal agreements with each other that would give them many of the same rights as married couples, a status commonly known as civil unions. This finding marks a slight uptick in support for civil unions and appears to continue a significant long-term trend since the question was first asked in Pew Research Center surveys in 2003, when support for civil unions stood at 45%.

This is the good news to come out of the new poll which questioned 4,013 adults, 18 years of age or older.

Unfortunately, for marriage equality, 53% oppose with only 39% in support, numbers which are "virtually unchanged" over the past year, the pollsters say. However, this doesn't mean people who oppose aren't growing more and more in favor of recognizing LGBT relationships.

"Over the past year, support for civil unions has grown significantly among those who oppose same-sex marriage (24% in August 2008 to 30% in 2009) while remaining stable among those who favor same-sex marriage," the pollsters report.

So what this indicates is the need to continue the work of educating people on the difference between civil unions and marriage. For many, they believe they're exactly the same and therefore, the LGBT population should settle for them.

But we all know that civil unions aren't equal to marriage - studies have shown that those in civil unions are not treated equally in society, and when emergencies demand rights to be enacted, many in a position of power, such as a nurse at a hospital, more than likely will not respond to a frantic lesbian demanding to see her ailing wife when she says, "We're civil unioned."

Another interesting note that reflects some of the division amongst LGBT and allied activists.

"Supporters of same-sex marriage are divided over the best way to pursue its legalization; 45% favor pushing hard to legalize it as soon as possible, while 42% of same-sex marriage advocates say they should not push too hard to legalize same-sex marriages right away because this might risk creating a backlash against gays and lesbians."

It would be interesting to know where there the respondents to this particular question live. I would bet that those in the deep Red State South mostly favor not pushing hard for marriage but a prefer a priority on ENDA and DADT.

The full poll reports is embedded below.


Pew Forum Poll on Marriage Equality October 2009

Read about how supportive Minnesota is of LGBT rights.

Referendum 71 Holds Narrow Lead in Polls, Needs Strong Voter Turn Out

Survey USA conducted a poll which shows Referendum 71 holding a narrow lead, reflecting similar results from an earlier poll. Approving the Washington state referendum is a vote to approve the "everything but marriage" domestic partnership law.

The numbers show 45% approve, 42% reject and 13% undecided.

Among men, the measure is rejected by a 4-point margin; among women, it is approved by 12 points -- a 16-point gender gap. 72% of Republicans say they will vote to reject; 72% of Democrats say they will vote to approve; independents reject by a 13-point margin. In Metro Seattle, the measure is approved by 18 points; in Eastern Washington, it is rejected by 18 points. Western Washington voters outside of Metro Seattle are more divided, with an 8-point margin voting against the referendum.

With Seattle making up 53% of the state's electorate, a strong GOTV campaign is needed to be sure LGBT allies come out and vote on the measure.

To help the Approve 71 campaign get out the vote, go to Approve71.org and get involved!

Nate Silver: Odds Are 3 to 1 Against Maine's Marriage Equality Ban

Numbers guru Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight takes a closer look at the polling numbers in Maine and throws them into a regression model based on several variants.

1. The degree of religiosity in a state based on a 2008 Gallup poll. Maine is the third least religious in the Union.
   
2. The year an initiative is up for a vote (off-year elections bring out more conservatives)
3. If an initiative bans only marriage equality and not civil unions, too.

In regards to Maine, Nate calculates also the factor that Question 1 does not attempt to amend the state's constitution, but only veto the legislature's new marriage equality bill. The fact the law came into being through the legislature and not a court mandate is also weighted.

Throw Maine's numbers into the model, and we come up with an estimated level of support for the ban of 43.5 percent, with 56.5 percent opposed. In other words, the model's prediction is that the ban will fail. The standard error of the forecast (not the margin of error, which is larger) is 5.2 points. This implies that the marriage ban only has about an 11 percent chance of passing.

These numbers, however, are before the factors are weighed in. After this, Nate says the odds against the same-sex marriage ban passing are 3 to 1.

What's absent in Nate's calculations is the consideration of the other controversial initiatives on November's ballot, including Maine's school consolidation repeal, which some believe will drive more Yes on 1 supporters to vote.

These numbers are cautious optimism at best. Even stronger ads with strict message discipline and bold endorsements, a big Get Out the Vote (GOTV) drive and more fund-raising is key to keeping the momentum to a big win.

BREAKING NEWS: New Maine Poll Shows Marriage Equality Squeaking Ahead But Still Facing Uphill Battle

A new Maine poll to be distributed tomorrow by Democracy Corps shows that pro-marriage equality campaign NO on 1 ahead by 9 points at 50 to 41. (Poll embedded at bottom of post, Question 6)

However, before you get too excited by these numbers, it's important to note that No on Prop 8 was ahead by 10+ points at this same time in September last year. Yes on Prop 8 responded by powerful attack messaging focusing on marriage equality's "detrimental effects" on children, and the same people responsible for Yes on Prop 8 are running Yes on 1 in Maine.

It appears Yes on 1 will follow the same road map. It's being reported they just purchased another large media buy and will most likely pound out fear mongering ads focused on kids. 9% in the poll are undecided and it's this group that's usually susceptible to attack ad messaging.

In others words, like in California this time last year, the worst is yet to come.

It's all about funds at this point - who can get their message out and keep it out the longest and the loudest.

Right now, the NO on 1 campaign is facing their third quarter financial report deadline which will go public. If it indicates it's low on funds, both the opposition and the media will declare that the NO on 1 campaign is not in position to sustain their momentum and will lose. It indicates a lack of support.

Even worse, NO on 1 will not be able to keep ads on the air or shoot new ones to counter what will most likely by an onslaught of nasty, hateful attack ads.

ACTION: This Wednesday at midnight is the deadline for every cent to count for the third quarter report. To contribute, go to the NO on 1/Protect Maine Equality's ACT BLUE donation page and give what you can!

Maine Marriage Equality Poll 9-29-09

Breaking News: Referendum 71 Polls - We're Ahead, But the Opposition Is Playing Very Dirty

According to Seattle Pi:

On a call to bloggers a few minutes ago Josh Friedes from the Approve Referendum 71 campaign shared the results of the first poll specifically about referendum 71. The results are a startling contrast to more general polls released by the University of Washington. When voters are read the exact ballot language, 51 percent approve referendum 71 and 44 percent reject referendum 71. The discrepancy may because this new poll looks only at voters likely to cast ballots in the 2009 off year election. As many as half of all voters don't vote in off year elections, and those who do tend to be more conservative.
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Josh Friedes said, "In the 2009 election the question isn't going to be how much support there is for the domestic partnership law, the question is going to be who votes. There is no question in my mind that the majority of Washington voters want their neighbors families to have the protections contained in the domestic partnership law, but if people don't vote this election is going to be a cliff hanger. People who support protecting all Washington families need to both vote and remind their friends and family that they too must vote in order to insure that families throughout Washington state do not lose the critical protections by Washington's domestic partnership law. If this law is not approved, families all across Washington state will be harmed."

Though this poll is very promising (though dangerously close) that voters will approve the new domestic partnership law extending all the rights and benefits of marriage except the name to gay and lesbian couples (that is, if we can get them to the voting booth), it's not surprising that it's this close given that the those who support a rejection of those rights are playing so dirty.

Take a look at the image post at the top. See a word that shouldn't be there? That's right - marriage (don't get me started on Ozzie & Harriet). They're attempting to frame the debate as a marriage issue when it's not. It's domestic partnership. And then they wonder why we fight for marriage. Because no matter what we settle for, they'll try and take it away.

Read more about these dirty tactics from Lurleen on Pam's House Blend.

ACTION: Fight back against these dirty tactics with the truth! You can get involved no matter where you live! Help GET OUT THE VOTE! Find out how at the Approve Referendum 71 volunteer page!

Iowa Poll Shows Residents Evenly Split Over Marriage Equality

The Desmoines Register produced the first Iowan poll on marriage equality since the Iowa Supreme Court ruling legalizing same-sex marriage. The nation's attention focused on the state since Iowa became the first mid-west state allowing gays and lesbians to marry, and many opponents and their dollars rushed in supporting different candidates who shared their views.

With the 2010 elections coming up, all 100 seats in the house are up for a vote as well as the governor's office with many gubernatorial candidates opposing marriage equality, and opposition forces hope to use the elections to get like-minded politicians in office and overturn the new law.

Yet many Iowans don't share their furor.

If a public referendum was held to ban marriage equality today, 41% would vote for the ban with 40% opposing. The remainder claimed they would not vote on it or were not sure.

35% of opponents to marriage equality strongly opposed while only 18% of supporters strongly favored.

But here's what's most striking and what could possibly be the death knell to some major talking points to anti-marriage equality forces: 92% claimed that same-sex marriage brought no real change to their lives.

63% claim candidates' stands on other issues will be more important in making their decisions in the 2010 elections.



Those these numbers don't show a majority support for marriage, it's very positive in that the anti-LGBT forces are quickly losing ground. Despite the cash flowing into Iowa, residents either don't feel marriage equality is a priority compared to other issues, or they actually support it and aren't swayed by the lies. This was proven recently with a National Organization for Marriage-backed candidate losing in a recent special election.

A recent Maine poll showed similar numbers (46% for marriage equality, 48% against), but unlike Iowa, Maine does have a public vote on their new marriage equality law coming up in November.

Help Maine protect marriage equality!

Poll: Marriage Equality Trailing in Maine; Don't Let Another Prop 8 Happen!

Results from a Research 2000/Daily Kos poll indicates that if Mainers voted on the new marriage equality law today, they would vote to overturn it, repeating what happened in California with Proposition 8.

Two questions were posed to 600 voters, both results indicating a slight majority favoring the anti-equality position.

Daily Kos/Research 2000 Maine Poll
Research 2000, MoE 4%, Sep 14, 2009 - Sep 16, 2009
Margin error of 4%.

QUESTION: As you may know there will be one question on the ballot this November in Maine addressing the issue of same-sex unions. In part it will read "Do you want to reject the new law that lets same-sex couples marry?" A yes vote takes away the right of same-sex couples to marry. A no vote keeps the right of same-sex couples to marry. If the election were held today would you vote YES or NO on this question?


QUESTION: Regardless of how you might vote do you favor or oppose allowing gay and lesbian couples to marry legally?

However, these numbers indicate a sizable persuadable margin of 6% "Not Sure" meaning that we can very well win.

ACTION: Yet to do this, Maine's NO on 1/Protect Maine Equality will need all the hands-on help they can get. Here's a list of ways to get involved, no matter where you live.

• Sign up to volunteer through the campaign website and they will let you know what you can do to help. No matter where you live!
• Thinking of taking a vacation? Take a vacation in Maine and volunteer as well! Check out the Volunteer-Vacation program through the campaign.
• Live in Los Angeles? Equality California is hosting a phone banking session throughout the next month. Click here, find which date works for you and sign up! (Don't worry - they'll train you.)
• Donate! Maine has some great ads airing, but they cost a lot of money. It's very important that our message stays on the air. Help keeps the ads running by donating! Every dollar counts.
  

What's happening in Maine will be historical. If we lose, it'll be our second time LGBT have been stripped of marriage rights in a row following Prop 8.

But if we win, it will be the first time marriage equality is passed by a public vote. Make this a historical win! Be a part of history!

New National AP Poll Shows Marriage Equality Opponents Still Outnumber Supporters

The recent "AP-National Constitution Center Poll" released yesterday asked citizens a variety of questions on topics ranging from the U.S. Constitution, health care and marriage equality.

"The poll found a small majority in support of extending to same-sex couples the same benefits given to married, heterosexual couples," the AP reports. "By a similar margin, however, Americans oppose government recognition of gay marriage."

1,001 adults were interviewed between September 3 - September 8, 2009. The poll contains a +/- 3.1 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.

Two questions were asked in regards to marriage equality.

1. Should state governments give legal recognition to marriages between couples of the same sex?



2. Should the Federal government give legal recognition to marriages between couples of the same sex?


Download the full poll. Check out prior polls on UTF's poll page.

We have come a long way in a relatively short amount of time in garnering support for marriage equality, but this indicates we still have a lot of work to do.

Currently, Maine is fighting to keep its marriage equality law from be overturned at the ballot. They're facing the same people who passed Prop 8 in California.

Get involved!

Washington State Poll Indicates Referendum 71 Faces Uphill Battle; Supporters Adamant Against LGBT Rights

Though Washington's Secretary of State certified Referendum 71 for November's ballot, its fate is not quite decided yet. A judge agreed with Washington Families Standing Together that many signatures should have been found invalid, but couldn't rule on whether or not Referendum 71 should be withheld due to being outside her purview. A decision in another court will be made soon.

However, a poll released Wednesday by the University of Washington reveals that even if Referendum 71 were to be voted on, it faces an uphill battle. A vote to approve is a vote to approve the "everything but marriage" domestic partnership law; a "NO" vote is to nullify it.

The poll shows that 66% either support same-sex marriage (36.7%) or full domestic partnerships (29.3%), while only 21.7% of those surveyed think there should be no legal recognition of same sex relationships. Since the referendum only deals with domestic partnerships, it is believed that those who support marriage equality will vote to approve Referendum 71.

Surprisingly, even a 53% majority of Republicans support rights for same-sex couples. Not so shocking, most support comes from Democrats at 86%. (See full poll at bottom of the post.)

The authors of the poll do note that this research was completed in a campaign-free environment. Once the debate heats up over the next few weeks, the numbers are almost guaranteed to change.

Though this new poll doesn't look good for those who oppose any rights for LGBT couples, they're still very adamant in their positions.

Since the state public disclosure commission ruled that Referendum 71 donors couldn't keep their names private, The Stranger's "Slog" decided to call up a few and ask, "Why do you hate me?" I don't necessarily agree with the question choice, but the resulting answers were interesting.

Though some answers range from not being educated on what Referendum 71 is really about to the typical religious belief motivation, one 84-year-old man thinks gays are "are major incubators of a lot of the bacteria."

Paul Henry

Contribution to R-71: $200

Paul Henry, an 84-year-old Christian in Colville, believes gay people are dirty, violent sodomites. Our crusade to achieve rights on parity with marriage is "a direct challenge to the survivability of society," he says. Why does he hate gay people so much? "I don't hate 'em. Actually, they are the ones overturning police cars. When Harvey Milk was shot, the gay people in San Francisco just went crazy. They smashed in store windows and turned over cars. They tried to light fires," he says. "They are the ones doing the violence. They aren't getting beat up. If you want to look at haters, [the gays] are the haters, not the Christians." He adds, "All Referendum 71 is trying to do is defend ourselves against their political attack. Society doesn't need to give anything to them just because they demand it. It is not a civil-rights issue; it is a health issue." So does he think gay people are gross? "I would say even more than gross. I think they are major incubators of a lot of the bacteria. It is common for homosexuals to have hundreds of different sexual experiences with people—they do fisting, they do water sports, and on and on. There are bacteria that are called 'gay-related syndrome' or something, but it is not healthy. And by using lots of antibiotics against them, the antibiotics are no longer usable because they don't work.

Unfortunately, Paul Henry represents the type of people we'll never be able to reach. Hopefully, the 66% who do support recognition of same-sex couples will come out and vote to approve Referendum 71.

Washington State Poll on Recognition of Same-Sex Couples

California Field Poll Shows Voters As Whole Have Become More Accepting of Marriage Equality Over Last Three Decades

UPDATE: Washington Post article on analysis, "As California Goes. . . "

CORRECTION: This is a new analysis of polling data taken in March and comparing this to the past three decades. It's not actually a poll with new raw data, though it's being mistakenly reported as such.

The Field Poll analysis released today shows a dramatic shift in support for marriage equality in California over the last three decades, and though it's close, it's not a majority yet. But it's no surprise that the Republicans are the only ones holding out versus Democrats and those who identify as non-partisan.

The Field Poll's analysis of issue trends identifies the same troubling dynamic for the Republican Party: Nonpartisans are much closer to Democrats in attitude than Republicans.

Despite the passage of Proposition 8 outlawing same-sex marriage last year, California voters as a whole have become much more accepting of same-sex marriage over the past three decades.

In 1977, opposition was 2-to-1, 62 percent to 31 percent. Now, a near majority, 49 percent, supports same-sex marriage to 44 percent that does not.

During that period, Democratic support for same-sex marriage has soared, flipping from 2-to-1 opposition in 1977 to 2-to-1 support today, 64 percent to 30 percent.

In 1977, 30 percent of Republicans supported same-sex marriages, dropping to 23 percent in 2009.

As for nonpartisans, 57 percent favor and 38 percent oppose same-sex marriage today. In 1977, opinions were reversed, 38 percent support to 55 percent opposition. Support for legal abortions has also increased significantly since the 1970s. In 1975, 51 percent of California voters favored abortion rights. In 2006, 70 percent did.

Again, Democratic support has swelled over the decades while Republican support is virtually unchanged

This analysis, which also breaks down each party and California's voter pool by race, will definitely inform the LGBT Californian population and how it determines when to go back to the ballot.

With the Next Steps Summit this Sunday, this analysis will most likely be discussed and referred to when strategizing a winning campaign. Below are the detailed findings. I'd suggest we familiarize ourselves with it.

August 2009 Field Poll

Extensive Analysis Shows While Support for Marriage Equality Rises, Policymakers Lag Behind

Columbia University today has released an analysis of extensive polling on LGBT rights, and in particular, marriage equality.

From their website:

Analysis of Polling Data Finds Growing Support for Same-Sex Marriage

According to a comprehensive new analysis of public opinion surveys conducted over the last 15 years, support for the legalization of same-sex marriage has grown substantially in the United States. Among other conclusions, two political science professors at Columbia University found reluctance among state and local policymakers to expand equal rights laws and protections even where majorities of voters support them.

The state-by-state analysis of polling data, titled "Gay Rights in the States: Public Opinion and Policy Responsiveness" tracks trends over time on eight policies affecting gay and lesbian rights: same-sex marriage, civil unions, employment non-discrimination, housing non-discrimination, hate crimes, second-parent adoption, health benefits for same-sex partners and sodomy laws.

Explicit support for same-sex marriage by state and age [Image credit: Jeffrey Lax]
Explicit support for same-sex marriage by state and age (Click to enlarge image.)
Image credit: Jeffrey R. Lax and Justin H. Phillips
The peer-reviewed findings of Jeffrey R. Lax and Justin H. Phillips will be published this August in the American Political Science Review.

“The most important predictor of whether a state has a particular policy protecting the rights of gays and lesbians is public opinion,” said Phillips. “Public support for a policy matters far more than how liberal the voters or government officials are in general. For same-sex marriage, majority support seems sufficient for it to be adopted.”

Lax elaborates on why strong supportive public opinion is critical.

“Majority support for a policy isn’t always enough. You often need supermajority support,” said Lax. “Politicians and policy makers are lagging far behind the public’s support on a number of key gay rights policies that are currently being debated across the U.S., particularly housing and employment protection, but even including civil unions.”

According to the analysis, the growth in support of gay rights is accelerating. Roughly half of the change in support nationwide has occurred in the last four years alone. Majorities now support same-sex marriage in Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New York, Rhode Island and Vermont. Of these, only New York and Rhode Island have not yet legalized same-sex marriage. New York Gov. David A. Paterson, however, has announced his support on the issue and his intention to advocate for legislation this fall.

While support for same-sex marriage is growing in all 50 states, polarization between the so-called red states and blue states is becoming more pronounced. (For the purposes of their analysis, Lax and Phillips define red states as those won by George Bush in the 2000 election for president and blues states as those won by Al Gore).

The difference in support for same-sex marriage between red states and blue states has nearly doubled in the last 12 years. Since 2004, support for same-sex marriage in blue states grew twice as much as in red states—an increase of eight points versus four points. Since 1994, support in blue states increased by 18 points versus 10 points in red states.

“In our analysis of persons 18 to 29 years old, roughly 38 states have majorities explicitly favoring same-sex marriage,” said Lax. “Generational change alone could lead to same-sex marriage rights across most of the country.”

Other findings of the study:

• The more media coverage a policy gets, the more likely it is to match majority public opinion. For example, media coverage of same-sex marriage and civil unions is far greater than coverage of job and housing non-discrimination. This increased visibility leads to increased congruence with opinion majorities.
• Of the 25 states with legislative majorities explicitly favoring civil unions, only 12 allow them. No state has legalized civil unions where majorities oppose them.
• Many states have not adopted housing and employment non-discrimination policies despite the fact that large majorities support them. Only 20 states have adopted such protections.
• Interest groups and voters opposed to marriage equality and other non-discrimination policies have influence far beyond their relative share of a state’s population. They can block equality measures even when there is a significant majority favoring them.

Here is the full analysis:

Gay Rights in the States - Public Opinion and Policy Responsiveness