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According to Seattle Pi: On a call to bloggers a few minutes ago Josh Friedes from the Approve Referendum 71 campaign shared the results of the first poll specifically about referendum 71. The results are a startling contrast to more general polls released by the University of Washington. When voters are read the exact ballot language, 51 percent approve referendum 71 and 44 percent reject referendum 71. The discrepancy may because this new poll looks only at voters likely to cast ballots in the 2009 off year election. As many as half of all voters don't vote in off year elections, and those who do tend to be more conservative.Though this poll is very promising (though dangerously close) that voters will approve the new domestic partnership law extending all the rights and benefits of marriage except the name to gay and lesbian couples (that is, if we can get them to the voting booth), it's not surprising that it's this close given that the those who support a rejection of those rights are playing so dirty.
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Josh Friedes said, "In the 2009 election the question isn't going to be how much support there is for the domestic partnership law, the question is going to be who votes. There is no question in my mind that the majority of Washington voters want their neighbors families to have the protections contained in the domestic partnership law, but if people don't vote this election is going to be a cliff hanger. People who support protecting all Washington families need to both vote and remind their friends and family that they too must vote in order to insure that families throughout Washington state do not lose the critical protections by Washington's domestic partnership law. If this law is not approved, families all across Washington state will be harmed."
Take a look at the image post at the top. See a word that shouldn't be there? That's right - marriage (don't get me started on Ozzie & Harriet). They're attempting to frame the debate as a marriage issue when it's not. It's domestic partnership. And then they wonder why we fight for marriage. Because no matter what we settle for, they'll try and take it away.
Read more about these dirty tactics from Lurleen on Pam's House Blend.
ACTION: Fight back against these dirty tactics with the truth! You can get involved no matter where you live! Help GET OUT THE VOTE! Find out how at the Approve Referendum 71 volunteer page!
I think it's hard to characterize a single percentage point as "winning". We can do better when we're told that almost 70% of voters in Washington are supportive of domestic partnerships. We've gotta TALK to all of those people who support us and get them to vote. We need everyone to donate and volunteer so we can open a safer margin! We CAN win this - but everyone's gotta pitch in and help!!
ReplyDeleteI agree with "ad". 51-44 is not good. Frankly, I never believed those happy polls that show 60-70% in favor of DP. When this issue was voted on in Colorado in 2006, it actually lost. While I think WA is better than CO, and things improve for us each year (and so 2009 is better than 2006), I don't think you would see 60-70% going our way even if this were not an off year.
ReplyDeleteThat having been said, given the disparity in resources and the flood of endorsements for our side, I think we will win by a few points. (The anti-gay side has run no TV ads and has a website that hasn't been updated in 2 weeks and looks like it should be on geocities circa 1996.)
UTF, let me ask you: was anything said on the blogger call about GOTV and field operations? In Prop 8, the Yes folks had 5 people in each precinct in every county doing GOTV. No on 8 was completely absent from most counties. Turnout doesn't have to be an exogenous factor that we have to accept; it can be something we determine.
I wouldn't characterize it as winning either, which is why I added it was "dangerously close". Just shows we're ahead. But there's also the "mean" margin, about 5%, where people say they're supportive, but their true colors show at the voting booth. So with that and a margin of error, it's a dead heat. Similar to Maine.
ReplyDeleteSteven, unfortunately I wasn't on that call which is why I had to quote it. But I am looking to talk to other bloggers and someone from the campaign who was. I will ask your question.