A new Maine poll to be distributed tomorrow by Democracy Corps shows that pro-marriage equality campaign NO on 1 ahead by 9 points at 50 to 41. (Poll embedded at bottom of post, Question 6)
However, before you get too excited by these numbers, it's important to note that No on Prop 8 was ahead by 10+ points at this same time in September last year. Yes on Prop 8 responded by powerful attack messaging focusing on marriage equality's "detrimental effects" on children, and the same people responsible for Yes on Prop 8 are running Yes on 1 in Maine.
It appears Yes on 1 will follow the same road map. It's being reported they just purchased another large media buy and will most likely pound out fear mongering ads focused on kids. 9% in the poll are undecided and it's this group that's usually susceptible to attack ad messaging.
In others words, like in California this time last year, the worst is yet to come.
It's all about funds at this point - who can get their message out and keep it out the longest and the loudest.
Right now, the NO on 1 campaign is facing their third quarter financial report deadline which will go public. If it indicates it's low on funds, both the opposition and the media will declare that the NO on 1 campaign is not in position to sustain their momentum and will lose. It indicates a lack of support.
Even worse, NO on 1 will not be able to keep ads on the air or shoot new ones to counter what will most likely by an onslaught of nasty, hateful attack ads.
ACTION: This Wednesday at midnight is the deadline for every cent to count for the third quarter report. To contribute, go to the NO on 1/Protect Maine Equality's ACT BLUE donation page and give what you can!
Maine Marriage Equality Poll 9-29-09