Friday, June 26, 2009

New Los Angeles Times Poll on Marriage Equality Shows Lots of Work Ahead for the City, Especially for POC Groups

The Los Angeles Times recently released a Los Angeles citywide survey covering residents' approval of the LAPD, the direction that the city is headed in and same-sex marriage.

Below, I put together the results specifically on marriage equality. These results are based on a bipartisan survey conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner together with Public Opinion Strategies for the Los Angeles Times. The survey fielded June 10-16, 2009 and was conducted among 1,500 registered voters citywide, including 210 interviews conducted of respondents reached on a cell phone. It has a margin of error of +/-2.6 percent.

Los Angeles Times Poll Marriage Equality 6-23-09

Compare these results with how Los Angeles city residents voted on Prop 8, out of a total votes of 941,149:
  • 42.49% voted "Yes"
  • 57.51% voted "No"
(In contrast, Los Angeles county voted for Prop 8.)

Support for marriage equality has dipped by over 1% if comparing to how city residents voted for Prop 8. Though that doesn't seem like a lot, it was only a few percentage points that Prop 8 passed in the state and Los Angeles County. Things haven't changed much.

Though the survey breaks down the Latino demographic further, it does not for the African Americans who, more than any other demographic in the survey, still highly oppose same-sex marriage.

Unfortunately, the survey did not breakdown Asian Pacific Islanders (API) in its polling. However, the recent polling conducted statewide by the Polling for Equality coalition did include and break down API. Yet this poll pools the information statewide and does not break it down to Los Angeles alone, at least from what I saw at the Leadership Summit. Everyone will have a chance to review those numbers on the Get Engaged Tour.

Though overall, Los Angeles city approves of the right for the LGBT population to marry, plenty of work remains for a possible repeal of Prop 8 in either 2010 or 2012.

Terry Leftgoff, who at one point was the highest ranking openly gay officer of the California Democratic Party and oversaw numerous campaign efforts, commented on Unite the Fight, "The LAT Poll documents some important racial and ethnic divisions that are the key to success in LA County, which holds 25% of all voters and is key to flipping the state.

"These divisions, which many have tried to downplay, are vital to understand.

"We cannot move forward with any confidence without a comprehensive strategy for these voters."

2 comments:

  1. Your analysis ignores the 7% "don't know". If this splits even a third for marriage then we are gaining ground, not losing it.

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  2. Frequently, those who indicate they 'don't know,' particularly on well vetted controversial issues, simply do not vote.

    So it isn't safe to infer support from this group. It is highly unreliable.

    ReplyDelete