Veteran civil rights attorney and executive director of the National Center for Lesbian Rights, Kate Kendall, told the Dallas Voice what she thinks the outcome of the CA Supreme Court's decision will be on Proposition 8. “We’re going to lose,” she said. Her organization is deeply involved with the case.
“I think it was very clear from the oral arguments that the court intends to uphold Prop 8,” Kendell added. “I’ve never seen a court so unequivocally telegraph their thinking.”
She thinks there's a 98 percent chance for the California Supreme Court to uphold Proposition 8 but to affirm the 18,000 same-sex marriage performed before the initiative passed, which she thinks “requires no courage” from the court.
“On this issue, with this court, they seem almost to intentionally communicate how they’re planning to rule,” Kendell said. “The only way they can get an opinion out in 90 days is if there’s already a draft opinion.”
Kendell believes the only way Proposition 8 can be overturned is at the ballot box. She said it would be extremely unwise to pursue a federal appeal given the current makeup of the U.S. Supreme Court, because a decision from the high court saying there’s no federal constitutional right for same-sex couples to marry likely couldn’t be overturned for 20-30 years. (See Rep. Barney Frank's opinion of the court)
The only question that remains, according to Kendell, is whether Prop 8 opponents should place a proposed repeal of the measure on the ballot in 2010 or in 2012. She said a vote next year would mean collecting 700,000 signatures this summer and raising another $40 million in a bad economy on the heels of last year’s campaign.
“My suspicion is that 2010 is too ambitious, and we certainly don’t want to be back on the ballot and lose,” she said.