A Tipping Point for Marriage Equality? A Good Reminder.

I'll be the first to admit that I'm awful at math, let alone applying statistical analysis to any sort of collected data.

Luckily for me, Andrew Gelman of Columbia University has done the work for me when applying data collected over a period of fifteen years on marriage equality and LGBT rights.

In his article, "Gay Marriage: a tipping point?" he clearly reports on Jeff Lax and Justin Phillips use of "multilevel regression and poststratification to estimate attitudes toward gay rights in the states...using national opinion polls from 1994 through 2009 and analyzed several different opinion questions on gay rights."

Don't ask me. But here's the cool part. Graphs! Since I'm the visual type (and I'm assuming many of you are, too), these are much easier to read.

Lax & Phillips Marraige Equality Civil Unions Graph

Publish at Scribd or explore others: event gay marriage

Gelman reports, "In the past fifteen years, gay marriage has increased in popularity in all fifty states. No news there, but what was a surprise to me is where the largest changes have occurred. The popularity of gay marriage has increased fastest in the states where gay rights were already relatively popular in the 1990s."

Why is this surprising? Because Gelman expected to see a "uniform swing" or "the lowest values increasing the most and the highest values declining, relative to the average. But that's not what's happening at all."

So why is this happening? Gelman says it's the "tipping point." As LGBT rights become more accepted and more people come out of the closet in a particular state, then "straight people realize how many of their friends and relatives are gay, they're more likely to be supportive of gay rights."

On the other end of the spectrum, if rights are restricted in a particular state, the LGBT population stays in the closet, "and thus the knowing-and-accepting process will go slower."

Unfortunately, it's a chicken or the egg paradox. LGBT don't want to come out of the closet where they're not accepted, but then if they don't, winning their rights takes longer, thus feeding the discrimination. So what comes first? Rights or acceptance?

Though this information is fascinating in its presentation, this conundrum is nothing new to the LGBT population. Harvey Milk's message during the Briggs Initiative touched on it.

I ask my gay sisters and brothers to make the commitment to fight. For themselves, for their freedom, for their country ... We will not win our rights by staying quietly in our closets ... We are coming out to fight the lies, the myths, the distortions. We are coming out to tell the truths about gays, for I am tired of the conspiracy of silence, so I'm going to talk about it. And I want you to talk about it. You must come out. Come out to your parents, your relatives.

What this study does do is remind us that being ourselves is the key to winning our rights and actively changing hearts and minds. But it's also a good reminder for us to support our fellow LGBT to find the courage to take that necessary step out of the closet to make that difference.

If Prop 8 Decision Comes Tomorrow, It Will Fall on 30th Anniversary of White Night Riots

If in fact the CA Supreme Court does rule on Prop 8 this Thursday, it will fall on the 30th Anniversary of the White Night Riots, which was sparked by a court decision giving San Francisco assemblyman Dan White the most lenient sentence of voluntary manslaughter for killing Harvey Milk and Mayor George Moscone.

The riots in San Francisco happened on the May 21, 1979, and continued onto May 22nd, Milk's birthday.



Dozens of arrests were made.

The Makers of "Milk" Ask Us to Support Courage Campaign

A letter from the makers of "Milk":

Today is a turning point. And, as Harvey Milk used to say so often, we're "here to recruit you."

A few minutes ago, the California Supreme Court heard the final oral arguments in the case to overturn Proposition 8. Within 90 days, we will know whether the court will restore equal rights or uphold injustice.

No matter what the state Supreme Court decides, the fight for equality will continue in California and across the country.

If we win, the same people who backed Prop 8 will find another way to undermine equal rights. If we lose, we will need to take our case to the people of California again. No matter what, we'll eventually need to win full equality under federal law.

At nearly 700,000 members and growing, the Courage Campaign is building an army to prepare for this fight -- the kind of people-powered movement that Harvey Milk would lead. A movement that proudly portrays -- and tells the stories of -- the people victimized by the discrimination of Prop 8, "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" and the Defense of Marriage Act.

We're here to recruit you. Will you help the Courage Campaign build this movement? Please contribute what you can today to restore marriage equality to California and bring equal rights to America:


www.couragecampaign.org/BuildTheMovement


Harvey Milk understood the need to organize communities from the bottom-up, the need for gay, lesbian, bi-sexual and transgender people to be out and proud as leaders in this movement, and the need for straight allies to join them in solidarity.

That's why we worked so hard to get the film "Milk" to movie screens across America. We wanted to show a new generation of Americans how Harvey organized to win landmark victories in the fight for equal rights.

Just like Harvey did in 1978 when he led the movement to defeat the "Briggs Initiative," the Courage Campaign is organizing across California to repeal Prop 8 -- training marriage equality activists at "Camp Courage" events, launching Equality Teams county-by-county, and producing online videos like the heartbreaking "Fidelity," viewed by more than 1 million people.

The only way we will win true equality in California and across the country is by giving people the power to do it themselves. And that's what the Courage Campaign is doing. Please contribute what you can afford today to help the Courage Campaign build this people-powered army from the ground up:

www.couragecampaign.org/BuildTheMovement

Thank you for joining us in supporting the Courage Campaign.

Sean Penn, Gus Van Sant, Dustin Lance Black, Cleve Jones, Bruce Cohen and Dan Jinks
"Milk" Actor, Director, Screenwriter, Historical Consultant and Producers

Sean Penn's Amazing Acceptance Speech for Best Actor, MILK

Sean makes a direct reference to Prop 8 at 2:30.

Watch Dustin Lance Black's Acceptance Speech

Dustin Lance Black, writer of "Milk", accepts the Academy Awards for Best Original screenplay and gives a moving acceptance speech.



Check out that beautiful white knot!

Got Milk?